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ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN AND INCREASED HUNGER AMONGST CITIZENS

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

According to current figures, there are nearly 925 million starving people on the planet.  Just under 180 million pre-school children are stunted, meaning they suffer from chronic malnutrition.Hunger is "a situation in which people do not get enough basic food to give them the energy and nutrients they need to live truly healthy lives" (Hunger Task Force, 2003). Hunger and food security are intertwined, but they are not the same thing. A lack of hunger does not mean food security, and households and individuals can go hungry to ensure longer-term food security, particularly during periods of stress.

According to current figures, there are nearly 925 million starving people on the planet.  Just under 180 million pre-school children are stunted, meaning they suffer from chronic malnutrition. Hunger is "a situation in which people do not get enough basic food to give them the energy and nutrients they need to live truly healthy lives" (Hunger Task Force, 2003). Hunger and food security are intertwined, but they are not the same thing. A lack of hunger does not mean food security, and households and individuals can go hungry to ensure longer-term food security, particularly during periods of stress.

After spreading through East Asia, Europe, and North America in early 2020, the COVID-19 global pandemic started affecting countries in Africa and Latin America. With the largest population in Sub-Saharan Africa, and long-standing travel and trade links within Africa and to the rest of the world, it seemed inevitable that the pandemic would eventually reach Nigeria. In late February, Nigeria recorded the subcontinent's first confirmed case, after which it began to spread throughout Lagos, Ogun State, and the Federal Capital Authority (FCT) area of Abuja. The arrival of the pandemic set off a chain of policy actions, including public health and education campaigns, fiscal and monetary measures, restrictions on large sections of the economy, and compensating measures in the form of social protection for poor and vulnerable people (Onyekwena and Amara Mma, 2020). The sudden onset of the pandemic and the scale of policy responses imposed significant economic costs on Nigeria's population, but the nature of the impacts on food systems and the poor remains unclear.

This chapter provides an initial assessment of the economic impacts of COVID-19 and the immediate social distancing policies adopted to curb the spread of the virus in Nigeria. A simulation-based evaluation is conducted using an unconstrained multiplier model based on data from a 2018 social accounting matrix (SAM). Simulations are informed by an assessment of sectoral impacts based on reviews of official data and policy announcements, interviews with key informants including representatives of government agencies, the private sector and industry groups, and development practitioners working in Nigeria.

In our analysis, major economic impacts are caused by external shocks (e.g., weakening global demand for oil and a global economic recession) as well as domestic policies adopted to reduce viral transmission (i.e., enforced social distancing). Four major impact channels are considered, including: (i) government revenue shortfalls; (ii) reduced foreign remittances; (iii) direct impacts from a 5-week “lockdown” policy that restricted movement of people and economic activities within the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, and Kano, Lagos, and Ogun States, as well state-level lockdowns lasting 8 weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba States; and (iv) indirect impacts of the lockdown policies on the rest of the country outside of the affected sectors or areas.

Economic impacts are assessed in terms of their effects on national gross domestic product (GDP), agri-food system GDP, and the number of people living below the international US$1.90-a-day poverty line. We estimate that national GDP declined sharply during the country's lockdown period, and that Nigeria will experience recession during 2020. More specifically, the lockdown policies reduced Nigerian GDP by US$11 billion or 23% during the 8-week period. Depending on the nature of economic recovery in the second half of 2020, we estimate that GDP will be between 6% and 9% lower compared to the levels of GDP there were expected during 2020 prior to the onset of COVID-19. Our estimated contraction of the economy is consistent with global projections (see IMF, 2020b; World Bank, 2020a), although these tend to fall close to our more optimistic scenarios. Despite being exempted from many of the government's lockdown policies, we estimate an 11% decline in agri-food system GDP (US$1.6 billion). We also estimate a temporary 9% point increase in the national poverty headcount rate, implying that there were 17 million more people living below the poverty line during the 8-week lockdown period—some of whom remain poor at the end of 2020.

In addition to posing a major health challenge for developing countries, COVID-19 is having severe socioeconomic impacts. For Nigeria's economy, an immediate concern was the sharp drop in oil prices, which threatened to undo years of moderate economic growth in Nigeria and many other oil-dependent African countries (IMF, 2020a). Nigeria's economy continues to suffer from oil dependence and vulnerability to oil price volatility (Arndt et al., 2018; FGN, 2020b). The economy recently emerged from a 2016 recession driven by a 2014–15 fall in oil prices. The 2016 recession was the first in 25 years, and while painful, it amounted to a relatively manageable contraction of about 1.6% of GDP (World Bank, 2019). An economic slowdown from the plunge in oil prices alone would have been damaging, but it is now clear that the continued spread of the pandemic and the associated policy responses across the globe, and within Nigeria, are likely to have severe consequences for Nigeria's economy and population.

Given these adverse outcomes, a pressing economic policy concern is to find ways to reduce the negative consequences of lower household income, higher poverty, and the greater likelihood of associated long-term impacts, such as deeper rates of malnutrition. In the short-term, while the focus has been on health, security, and the welfare of vulnerable population groups, the government has provided food from the national grain reserve and advanced payments of conditional cash transfers (FAO, 2020; FGN, 2020a; Nnabuife, 2020). Our findings suggest that not only are these measures important, but additional measures may be required, especially for urban lower-middle-income and rural nonfarm households. Our findings also indicate the need to consider, over the medium term, measures such as reopening Nigeria's borders, at least partially, to food imports to meet rising demand. Finally, looking toward longer-term strategies, our findings confirm that diversifying Nigeria's economy remains imperative—to reduce its dependence on oil extraction as the main source of growth (Arndt et al., 2018). Improving the resilience of agricultural production is one way of ensuring that future crises have a more limited impact on the health and well-being of Nigerians.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Since late 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has spread quickly and widely across the world, posing serious threats to food security and nutrition. The unfolding crisis has had an effect on food systems1 and has placed people's access to food in jeopardy due to a variety of factors.We've seen not only a massive disruption of food supply chains as a result of the global health crises' lock-downs, but also a significant global economic recession. These crises have resulted in lower wages and higher food costs, putting food out of reach for many people and jeopardizing attempts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.The worst results, according to the World Health Organization, are yet to come (Ghebreyesus, 2020; Khorsandi, 2020). Most health experts believe the outbreak will continue to spread for at least another year or two (Scudellari, 2020).COVID-19 is a respiratory disease for which there is no indication that food is a transmission vector (ICMSF, 2020). However, the virus's proliferation and the steps taken to stop it have had far-reaching consequences for food security, agriculture, and food systems. Around the same time, malnutrition (including obesity) raises the risk of COVID-19 infection.President Muhammed Buhari declared a complete lockdown in the Federal Capital Territory, Lagos State, and Ogun State on March 29, 2020, due to initial and continuing confusion about the existence of COVID-19's spread. Several state governments have also proclaimed absolute lockout, including Edo, Kano, Enugu, Bauchi, Kaduna, and Kwara.Though intended to stop the outbreak, the national lockout has had an economic impact, limiting credit access to farmers, limiting access to inputs for agriculture, limiting access to transportation facilities for transporting grain, and limiting food imports by border closures.The ban includes a social association, mobility, non-essential economic, and leisure activities.These restrictions are starting to have an effect on food supply and transportation, causing food prices to rise and restricting people's access to healthy food.And before the outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020, there was a food crisis in Nigeria due to the country's increasing population. According to the World Health Organization, Nigeria is plagued by three major malnutrition indicators: anemia, obesity, and stunting.Furthermore, the comparatively low production of Nigeria's agriculture sector has resulted in increased food imports to meet the needs of the country's increasing population. The country is facing serious food security issues.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

To find out if the outbreak of COVID 19 affected food production.

Determine if there was hunger even before the out break of COVID 19

To know how citizens got food during the COVID 19 lock-down

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Did COVID 19 affect food production ?

Was there hunger before the COVID 19 breakout ?

How did citizens assess food during the COVID 19 lock-down?

1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This study would serve as study material to other researchers

1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

Due to resource constraints, the study was limited to the collection and analysis of data in Iyana paja, Lagos state.

1.7 LIMITATION OF STUDY

Availability of material and time constraints were major challenges the researcher faced will carrying out the research.

1.6 DEFINATION OF TERMS

HUNGER: Hunger is described as a state in which a person cannot consume enough food to satisfy his or her basic nutritional needs for an extended period of time. The word "hunger" is used in the area of hunger relief in a way that goes beyond the universal need for food that all humans have.

COVID 19: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infection caused by a novel coronavirus known as extreme acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; formerly known as 2019-nCoV), which was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, after an epidemic of respiratory illness cases.

CITIZENS: a citizen is a native or naturalized citizen of a state or country who owes allegiance to and is protected by that government

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